Forex sniping strategy

Kami memiliki sistem scalping forex terbaik dengan memanfaatkan indikator strategi scalping forex terbaik untuk benar-benar mendapatkan keuntungan dari pasar mata uang. Menu Utama Header Menu Bootcamp Tahap 1 1.1 Tentang Angkatan Darat Forex 1.2 Mengapa Scalping 1.3 Aturan Tahap 2 2.1 Apa itu Sniper TFA 2.2 TFA Sniper Dijelaskan 2.3 Tahapan Instalasi TFA Video 3 3.1 Apa Penegakan TFA 3.2 TFA Enforcer Dijelaskan 3.3 Perdagangan TFA Manajer Tahap 4 4.1 Rencana Bisnis Forex 4.2 Rencana Bisnis TFA Tahap 5 5.1 Psikologi Perdagangan 5.2 Bacalah Buku Ini Tahap 6 6.1 Dasar-Dasar Penting 6.2 Strategi Dasar 8211 Perdagangan EZ 6.3 Strategi Dasar 8211 Perdagangan FF 6.4 Strategi Intermediate 8211 Perdagangan DZ 6.5 Strategi Intermediate 8211 Perdagangan TT 6.6 Strategi Lanjutan 8211 JT Trade 6.7 Strategi Lanjutan 8211 PT Perdagangan Ujian Bootcamp Main navigation Beranda 62 Bagaimana Cara Kerja Scalping Forex Bagaimana Cara Kerja Forex Scalping Penjelasan mendalam tentang bagaimana cara kerja forex scalping sehingga Anda dapat lebih memahami metode trading yang bagus ini. Definisi yang disederhanakan 8216Scalping8217 Tindakan memasuki perdagangan yang ingin cepat memperoleh keuntungan dari pergerakan harga jangka pendek dari pasar yang biasanya berlangsung dari beberapa menit sampai beberapa jam (tergantung pada seberapa cepat pasar bergerak saat itu) Pertanyaan umum saya Cenderung mendapatkan dari orang-orang tentang strategi scalping forex kita ini. Mengapa scalping Mengapa tidak trading hari, trading swing atau trading jangka panjang Persis bagaimana cara kerja forex scalping dan apakah itu benar-benar bekerja Nah, untuk membantu anda mengerti sangat mengapa scalping adalah cara trading dan menghasilkan uang yang sangat bagus, saya harus menjelaskan bagaimana Pasar forex bekerja dengan cara yang lebih mendalam sehingga Anda benar-benar memahami konsep trading dan scalping untuk mencari nafkah. Harga di pasar forex bergerak berdasarkan permintaan dan penawaran, artinya orang membeli dan menjual. Itulah inti dari bagaimana pasar forex bekerja. Ketika harga naik, itu karena ada lebih banyak orang membeli daripada menjual pada saat itu (lebih banyak permintaan daripada penawaran). Jadi, ada banyak alasan mengapa orang membeli atau menjual. Itu bisa jadi karena siaran berita, atau mungkin ketika harga telah menyentuh level 200 Moving Average atau mungkin ketika harga telah mencapai level terendah 10 tahun Bisa jadi karena seratus dan satu alasan yang berbeda, beberapa bahkan sama sekali tidak masuk akal seperti pada tahun 1920 Obama telah bersin. Itu berarti pasar AS ditakdirkan gagal Jual sell8221 Apapun alasannya, akan selalu ada area utama di pasar forex dimana orang akan membeli dan menjual. Jadi, saya tahu bahwa orang selalu mencari-cari tingkat kunci di pasar berdasarkan analisis lucu apa pun yang mereka miliki. Bagaimana ini bisa membantu saya 8221 Nah, sekarang kita lanjutkan ke SAAT orang membeli, dan itu membawa kita pada konsep indikator tertinggal dan terdepan. Hampir 99 indikator saat ini di pasar adalah indikator LAGGING, artinya, mereka selalu selangkah di belakang harga saat ini. Rata-rata bergerak hanya dapat diklasifikasikan saat harga telah selesai bergerak. Sama halnya dengan Bollinger Bands, Envelopes, Candlesticks, dll. Masalahnya dengan indikator lagging ini adalah ketika Anda memasuki pasar, Anda cenderung menjadi satu langkah terlalu lamban dan kesempatan telah berlalu begitu saja. Yang terpenting, Anda membiarkan diri Anda rentan terhadap manipulasi dari sedikit orang yang merupakan salah satu langkah 8220ahead8221 Anda. Ini sederhana, jika Anda orang pertama yang memasuki ruangan kosong, Anda pasti tahu itu aman. Tapi jika Anda adalah orang kedua, Anda tidak akan pernah tahu apa yang mungkin dilakukan orang pertama terhadap jebakan jebakan di tempat itu. Sama seperti untuk forex, ketika Anda berada di belakang, Anda tidak akan pernah tahu apa yang orang selangkah di depan Anda berencana. 8220Oke, jadi sekarang saya tahu bahwa indikator lagging buruk. Apa saja indikator utama8221 Hanya ada 2 indikator utama di pasar saat ini. 1) Volume. Anda tidak bisa mendapatkan data ini secara akurat di pasar forex. Ini karena setiap data volume hanya untuk broker tertentu dan tidak mewakili seluruh pasar forex. 2) Fibonacci. Rumus matematika magis yang berakar sejak awal waktu. Anda sudah pernah mendengarnya, dan beberapa dari Anda mungkin pernah melihat cara kerjanya dengan sangat fantastis, namun kebanyakan orang tidak pernah memahami keseluruhan konsep di balik bagaimana seni perhitungan fibonacci bekerja. Pada dasarnya, tingkat fibonacci memberi tahu Anda kapan harga mungkin terpental atau bereaksi, memberi Anda sinyal masa depan pada tingkat untuk membeli atau menjual. Skenario 1: Sekarang, bayangkan ini. Anda melihat grafik 5 menit Anda dan Anda melihat level fibonacci yang sangat kuat di atas Anda (resistance). Ketika harga mencapai itu, apa yang akan Anda lakukan Nah, kebanyakan orang akan ragu sedikit lalu menjual dan mungkin keluar 5050 pemenang 8211 bukan masalah besar. Skenario 2: Oke bagaimana dengan ini Anda melihat grafik 5 menit Anda dan seseorang tiba-tiba memberi tahu Anda bahwa level resistance fibonacci di atas Anda juga merupakan level resistance fibonacci utama untuk grafik 1 menit, grafik 15 menit, grafik 30 menit, grafik 1 jam, Grafik 4 jam, grafik 1 hari, grafik 1 minggu dan grafik 1 bulan (yang berarti 9 kali frame by the way). Semua dari mereka telah berbaris dengan sempurna pada tingkat itu dalam kerangka waktu 7 8211 apa yang akan Anda lakukan Nah, kebanyakan pedagang di Forex Force ini akan tergila-gila pada perdagangan itu karena akan memiliki kesempatan menang 90 karena setiap orang yang melakukan trading 1 Grafik menit, 5 menit, 15 menit, 30 menit, 1 jam, 4 jam, 1 hari, 1 minggu dan 1 bulan mencari untuk masuk pada tingkat yang sama untuk dijual. Jadi ingatlah bahwa sebelumnya saya telah mengatakan bahwa pergerakan pasar forex terbuat dari jual-beli Apa yang terjadi ketika hampir semua orang terlihat menjual semuanya. Harga yang sederhana bereaksi dengan kuat dan turun. Konsep yang sama ini digunakan saat Anda ingin membeli. Sekarang, sekarang Anda menjelaskan mengapa berdagang dengan indikator utama yang menggabungkan 9 kerangka analisis waktu sangat kuat. Tapi mengapa tidak memegang posisi yang lebih lama8221 Hebat yang Anda tanyakan itu Nah, konsepnya sederhana dan saya akan menjelaskannya dalam sebuah cerita lucu. Bayangkan Anda diberi tugas gila untuk mendorong naik bus dan Anda mendapat bantuan 100 orang. Anda semua berdiri di satu sisi bus. Hal yang spesial adalah. Karena Anda menggunakan indikator 8220leading8221 seperti fibonacci, Anda diberi headstart 1 menit sebelum 1.000 orang datang dari sisi lain dan mulai mendorong bus ke arah Anda. Anda menang jika Anda berhasil mendorong bus ke atas, jika tidak, Anda akan hancur oleh 1.000 orang yang datang ke arah yang berlawanan dan mendorong bus ke arah Anda. Sekarang, apa yang akan Anda lakukan Nah, jika Anda seperti kebanyakan orang, Anda akan mengumpulkan 100 pria Anda dan di menit ke 1, semua menggabungkan kekuatan Anda dan mendorong bus ke atas. Setelah Anda selesai, Anda menang. Anda bahkan tidak bisa menunggu 1.000 orang lain yang akan datang. Anda menyelesaikan tugas dengan cepat, Anda menang dan Anda keluar dari sana. Scalping in forex Cara Forex Army sama seperti itu. Anda menggunakan indikator utama sehingga telah menempatkan Anda di depan 99 pasar yang menggunakan bentuk indikator lagging lucu mereka sendiri. Karena Anda telah berhasil menggabungkan kekuatan 7 kerangka waktu (sekelompok orang yang kuat), Anda bisa memasuki pasar dengan sekelompok orang yang kuat, mendorong bus (mengambil keuntungan Anda), dan keluar (sebelum yang lain). 1.000 orang tertinggal datang). Bagian yang terbaik adalah kita tidak perlu khawatir dengan semua berita, semua malapetaka dan semua indikator lucu di luar sana. Kami hanya fokus pada satu sistem canggih, gunakan dengan baik, dan manfaatkan dengan baik. Aku sendiri gila, tapi sangat masuk akal. Tapi mengapa itu disebut TFA Sniper Mengapa bukan TFA Pistol 8221 Ada alasan bagus mengapa sistem scalping kami disebut TFA Sniper. Seorang penembak jitu menunggu dengan sabar berjam-jam untuk mendapatkan kesempatan sempurna untuk mengambil gambar, dan saat ada kesempatan, dia mencapai sasarannya dengan satu tembakan. Itulah yang dilatih untuk dilakukan di sini di The Forex Army. Kami menunggu dengan sabar waktu terbaik untuk melakukan perdagangan dan ketika tiba, kami mengambil tembakan, mengantongi pips dan menelponnya sehari. Kami tidak di sini untuk berdagang, kami ingin menghasilkan uang dan jika melakukan tiga sampai lima perdagangan sederhana sehari (kami memiliki pengguna yang bahkan menghasilkan keuntungan dengan satu perdagangan sehari) membawa kami ke sana, tidak ada alasan bagi kami untuk berkompromi dengan peraturan kami. Dan masukkan 50 perdagangan sehari. Tolong, tapi bagaimana dengan acara berita? Kudengar pasar bisa menjadi sangat tidak stabil selama masa itu.8221Money Flow Trading Method bersamaan dengan Manajemen Resiko WAKTU SEMPURNA KeepCalmfx Pagi ini saya mencatat apa yang sedang terjadi dengan EURUSD. Tepat sebelum NOON hari ini, NOON TIMUR STANDAR WAKTU seperti yang terjadi SETIAP HARI. Senin sampai Jumat. Eropa pulang karena berkaitan dengan Eropa dan Equity Markets. Sekitar siang hari. Pedagang Forex Komersial BIG pulang ke rumah. Tentu saja FOMC Minutes hanya keluar 2 jam kemudian sehingga SPIKE UP CLEARLY SHORT COVERING. Ini bukan tentang Politik di Prancis karena berita itu telah berlangsung berjam-jam. Berikut adalah PILIHAN EXCELLENT TERBARU dengan komentar pada EURUSD yang baru saja saya salin dari POPULER EURUSD Thread. BERITA BERGERAK PASAR. FUNDAMENTALS PINDAHKAN PASAR. UANG ARUS MOVES PASAR. THE CHARTS quotDO Tidak ingin memindahkan pasar mereka hanya memotretnya atau saat saya menyebutnya X RAY. Inilah bagannya dan sekarang kamu tahu. Laporan Pembersihan: Pasang 1.092.691 oleh sakisf Sisa sampai mencapai fomc di area persegi biru lalu tergantung pada fomc 1.0644 secara langsung atau mulailah pindah ke 1.0380. Tidak mengambil perdagangan di 1,0495 sesuai rencanaku karena kelemahan, tapi apakah EG rindu dari 0,84-08450, keluar sekarang di 0,8480 berkat lonjakan bahasa Prancis. Berita Prancis ini bisa menjadi katalisator untuk pergerakan yang lambat dari sekarang di UE. Kesepakatan Yunani juga segera membuahkan hasil. Terlampir Gambar (klik untuk memperbesar) forexfactoryattachme. 1ampd1487783708 1 Semoga semua orang baik-baik saja. Saya pikir ini adalah penjelasan bagus tentang bagaimana membaca risiko atau risiko. Ini adalah artikel lama (2011), yang saya temukan di situs FXCM. Saya percaya kita masih bisa menggunakan konsep artikel ini dan mempertimbangkan apa yang Benjamin ajarkan kepada kita di sini Apakah ini benar Benjamin Bagaimana Membaca Resiko atau Resiko Resident Sentimen Pasar tampaknya macet setiap hari antara Risiko On dan Risk Off. Sentimen Risk Reading semudah mengikuti arahan Pasar Saham AS. Setiap hari, nampaknya rumor baru diproduksi dan pasar saham bergeser sesuai dengan itu. Tindakan jungkat balik bisa mengurangi emosi pedagang. Salah satu cara untuk mengukur tren yang mendasari pasar adalah melalui risk appetite investor. Manfaat memahami mood pasar adalah memungkinkan Anda menyelaraskan perdagangan Anda ke arah sentimen pasar. Bila Anda melihat pasar saham meningkat secara signifikan, itu merupakan indikasi bahwa risiko sedang aktif. Risiko lingkungan adalah suasana pasar dimana investor merasa senang dengan prospek ekonomi masa depan. Oleh karena itu, mereka mengambil modal dan berspekulasi di pasar saham dan instrumen yielding tinggi. Hal ini umumnya meningkatkan nilai pasar saham dan mata uang berimbal hasil tinggi. Pada saat yang sama, instrumen dengan yield rendah cenderung kurang mendapatkan nilai relatif atau bahkan mungkin kehilangan nilai. Mata uang dengan yield rendah cenderung dijual untuk mendanai pembelian mata uang dengan yield lebih tinggi. Penjualan mata uang dengan yield rendah ini sekaligus membeli mata uang dengan yield tinggi disebut Carry Trade. Jadi efek dari risiko pada sentimen adalah kenaikan di pasar saham dan permintaan untuk mata uang yielding tinggi. Akibatnya, strategi Carry Trade cenderung berkinerja baik. (Lihat sumber tambahan di bawah ini untuk informasi lebih lanjut tentang Strategi Perdagangan Carry.) Dalam tabel di atas, karena AUD secara historis merupakan mata uang dengan yield tinggi, ketika sentimen risiko berada di ON (daerah yang teduh hijau) nilai tukar AUDUSD cenderung meningkat Dan strategi carry trade berjalan dengan baik. Ketika sentimen risiko berubah menjadi OFF (daerah yang teduh pink) nilai tukar AUDUSD cenderung turun dan strategi carry trade tidak akan dilakukan secara tidak konsisten. Bila Anda melihat jatuhnya pasar saham yang diberi label berisiko di media. Itu berarti investor dan pedagang enggan mengambil risiko mereka ingin menghindari risiko dan instrumen berisiko. Oleh karena itu, para investor menarik uang mereka keluar dari saham dengan menjual saham mereka dan menjual instrumen berisiko mereka seperti mata uang berimbal hasil tinggi. Dalam risiko dari mood pasar, carry trade tidak berjalan. Meskipun seorang trader memperoleh dividen harian, pergerakan nilai tukar sangat merugikan yang menghapus keuntungan bunga. Dalam risiko di luar lingkungan, para pedagang lebih baik membeli mata uang safe haven. Aset berisiko seperti pasar saham AS dan mata uang berimbal hasil tinggi seperti AUD mendekati level resistance. Ini mungkin berarti kembali ke risk aversion dan aksi jual di pasar saham dan AUDUSD. Ibu-ibu dan bapak-bapak. ITU TIDAK MUNGKIN menjadi Pedagang Forex yang hebat jika pola pikir Anda TETAP. Thread EURUSD di Forex Factory mungkin adalah thread Forex yang paling banyak dibaca di Dunia dan ini mewakili pemikiran dan emosi Pedagang Forex di Seluruh Dunia. SEBAGAI PANJANG SEBAGAI NEGARA MINDSET BAHWA EURUSD harus pulih dan GO UP. Anda telah menjamin kerugian Anda. Tren untuk saat ini adalah SECARA TERSURAT DAN jika Anda bertransaksi melawan Trend maka Anda tidak bisa menang. Tentu Anda mungkin perdagangan tren counter dan membuat beberapa PIPS belum setelah itu membalikkan itu terus turun dan. Terima kasih Benyamin atas semua waktu dan usaha yang telah Anda masukkan ke dalam thread ini sejauh ini. Saya telah belajar banyak sejak saya mulai mengikuti thread Anda dan bahkan lebih ketika saya mulai berinteraksi. Saya yakin ada orang lain yang juga menemukan bahwa thread Anda sangat membantu dan mereka juga telah belajar sesuatu yang sangat berharga. Saya akan mengatakan 3 hal terpenting yang telah saya pelajari di masa lalu - 8 minggu adalah nr. 1 cara Anda berpikir tentang perdagangan dan pasar seperti yang Anda sebutkan di atas sangat penting dan saya pikir saya perlahan tapi pasti melakukan transisi dari cara pikir saya. Ini adalah sebuah proses, tapi saya pikir saya akan sampai di sana. Maka tentu saja disiplin dan kesabaran bagi saya adalah atribut yang paling penting harus menjadi trader yang konsisten menguntungkan. Ini juga sesuatu yang harus Anda kerjakan setiap hari. Bergabung pada Okt 2016 Status: Member 315 Kiriman Steven Mnuchin Berbicara kepada CNBC, Gagal Memberikan Trump Tax Plan Details: Ikhtisar Penting Setelah wawancara pertamanya sejak dikonfirmasi kemarin dengan WSJ, Menteri Keuangan AS Steven Mnuchin berbicara kepada CNBCs Becky Quick dan mengulangi beberapa Poin kunci yang dia buat kemarin, di antaranya harapannya untuk mendapatkan reformasi pajak yang dilakukan oleh reses Kongres Agustus, namun dia sekali lagi menegaskan bahwa ada banyak pemindahan pada saat ini yang mengatakan bahwa itu adalah quottoo lebih awal untuk memberikan rincian dari rencana pajak Trump. Sebagai pengingat, pada 9 Februari saham melonjak setelah Presiden Trump menjanjikan sebuah rencana pajak quotphenomenalquot yang akan diresmikan dalam quottwo atau tiga minggu. quot Tampaknya ini tidak akan terjadi, dan sebaliknya di alamat State of the Union-nya, di mana pasar mengharapkan lebih banyak Kejelasan tentang Trumps kebijakan ekonomi yang akan diresmikan, Trump akan dipaksa untuk berbicara secara luas karena dia tidak hanya menyulut rencana pajaknya di Kongres, tapi juga proses pengunaan dan penggantian (dan mengganti nama dan memperbaiki) dari Obamacare yang juga memiliki Terjebak dalam negosiasi di Kongres. Semalam kita meletakkan sebuah dasar yang luas tentang bagaimana Trumps kebijakan pajak kemungkinan akan terpengaruh oleh negosiasi terhenti atas Obamacare. Sebagai pengingat, kemarin dalam wawancara WSJ-nya, Mnuchin mengatakan bahwa pemerintah tersebut bekerja sama dengan House and Senate Republicans untuk memperlancar perbedaan di antara mereka mengenai kebijakan pajak, dengan tujuan untuk melewati undang-undang besar sebelum Kongres berangkat untuk reses Agustus. Dia menambahkan, itu adalah garis waktu yang ambisius. Ini bisa tergelincir ke akhir tahun ini. Dia juga mengatakan bahwa pemerintah melihat secara serius rencana DPR yang mencakup penyesuaian perbatasan dan sangat menyadari kekhawatiran yang diajukan oleh industri tertentu. Departemen Keuangan memiliki kekhawatiran sendiri, dia menambahkan, tentang dampaknya terhadap dolar dari pajak yang disesuaikan dengan perbatasan. Pada topik tombol panas lainnya, meski sebelumnya Trump menganjurkan seseorang untuk memberi nama manipulator mata uang China, Mnuchin mengatakan bahwa mereka tidak membuat keputusan apapun saat ini. Secara keseluruhan, Mnuchin menghindari kebanyakan topik kuotot kuotot, dan mengulangi poin pembicaraan WSJ yang sama dengan CNBC. Selain punchline tersebut, yaitu terlalu dini untuk memberikan rincian rencana pajak berikut ini beberapa hal penting lainnya yang disebutkan oleh Mnuchin dalam wawancara: hal yang paling penting untuk pertumbuhan adalah perencanaan pajak perpajakan yang sebagian besar difokuskan pada kelas menengah QuotTax reformasi akan signifikanquot quotHigh pemotongan pajak penghasilan harus mengimbangi dolar dan saham mencerminkan kepercayaan dalam ekonomi AS kuotaTidak terfokus pada pergerakan pasar hari ke hari quotLooking erat di perbatasan penyesuaian taxquot meskipun ia menambahkan bahwa ada beberapa masalah dengan itu. Pertumbuhan quot3 sangat bisa dicapai, bisa jadi akhir 2018 sebelum kita melihat 3 growthquot quot Tidak membuat penilaian mengenai kebijakan mata uang China Treasury memiliki proses untuk meninjau kembali kebijakan pertukaran valasquot quotTahap perkiraan pertumbuhan regulator kemungkinan akan lebih tinggi sehingga Kongresquot quotRegulatory lega juga penting untuk mendongkrak Pertumbuhan ekonomi terus berlanjut, saat mencapai bisnis. Akhirnya, sementara dia menolak memberikan rincian rencana untuk obligasi 50 tahun, dia mengakui bahwa kutipan dari penerbitan Obligasi Negara AS 50 tahun atau 100 tahun patut mendapat perhatian serius. Quot Komersial Anggota Bergabung Desember 2014 1,757 Post Online Sekarang Terima kasih Benyamin atas semua waktu dan usaha yang telah Anda masukkan ke dalam thread ini sejauh ini. Saya telah belajar banyak sejak saya mulai mengikuti thread Anda dan bahkan lebih ketika saya mulai berinteraksi. Saya yakin ada orang lain yang juga menemukan bahwa thread Anda sangat membantu dan mereka juga telah belajar sesuatu yang sangat berharga. Saya akan mengatakan 3 hal terpenting yang telah saya pelajari di masa lalu - 8 minggu adalah nr. 1 cara Anda berpikir tentang perdagangan dan pasar seperti yang Anda sebutkan di atas sangat penting dan saya pikir saya perlahan tapi pasti. Hello KeepCalmfx dan semua orang yang datang ke thread ini dan semua orang yang saya lihat di thread sekarang yang menunjukkan 18 namun hanya tiga anggota kami. Setiap pagi saat saya bangun, saya tidak memiliki rencana bagaimana pikiran saya berkembang. Saya membaca email dan mendengarkan berita dan wawancara dan kemudian datang ke thread ini untuk memulai posting hari saya di sini. Pagi ini saya mulai dengan menyapa posting teman saya dan trader Forex. KeepCalmfx. Saya menghargai komentar Anda sepanjang waktu dan usaha dan pekerjaan yang telah saya investasikan di thread ini sejak 3 Desember 2016. Saya memiliki alasan dan agenda untuk melakukan hal ini. Alasannya adalah meyakinkan diri saya bahwa saya bisa mengajari trader Forex lain untuk melakukan apa yang saya lakukan dan itu adalah menjadi pemenang trading Forex. Saya belajar hal-hal menarik yang tidak saya ketahui sebelum memulai thread ini. Saya akan mulai dengan menyatakan bahwa interaksi sangat penting untuk memperbaiki trading Forex Anda dan saya sekali lagi mendorong siapa pun yang membaca thread ini untuk mendaftar ke Forex Factory sehingga Anda dapat memposting dan kita bisa berkomunikasi. Inilah yang dikatakan KeepCalmfx adalah 3 hal terpenting yang dipelajari. Seperti yang Anda pikirkan tentang perdagangan dan pasar seperti yang Anda sebutkan di atas sangat penting dan saya pikir saya perlahan tapi pasti melakukan transisi dari cara pikir saya. Ini adalah sebuah proses, tapi saya pikir saya akan sampai di sana. Maka tentu saja disiplin dan kesabaran bagi saya adalah atribut yang paling penting harus menjadi trader yang konsisten menguntungkan. Ini juga sesuatu yang harus Anda kerjakan setiap hari. Jadi Anda mengatakan lulus di Montreal. LOL quotequot Saya berani menebak bahwa ada sekitar Sepuluh Juta Pedagang Forex Ritel di dunia dan setidaknya 75 di antaranya adalah pedagang teknis. Seperti yang telah saya katakan bahwa menjadi kasus, mereka TIDAK ADA KESEMPATAN untuk menjadi pedagang Forex profesional. Lihatlah bagan bagus yang saya kirimkan dari Thread EURUSD. Sekarang saya telah membahas hal terpenting yang telah dipelajari KeepCalmfx. Lalu kita pergi ke PATIENCE dan DISIPLIN. Aku meletakkan DISIPLIN YET ketiga itu yang paling PENTING karena tanpa itu thread ini pasti pernah mencapai 108 halaman. HANYA alasan saya terus posting meskipun saya telah membuktikan kepada diri sendiri secara meyakinkan bahwa saya dapat mengajarkan apa yang telah saya pelajari dalam 14 tahun terakhir dengan saya sendiri adalah karena hal-hal lain yang saya pelajari tentang komunitas perdagangan Forex ritel yang diwakili oleh Benang EURUSD Ada hal lain yang harus dilakukan hari ini jadi saya akan menyerahkannya ke KeepCalmfx untuk memberi tahu kami. Saya melihat GOLD sudah besar pagi ini. Saya juga mengelola portofolio saham dan saya berharap dapat melihat keuntungan bagus hari ini dari Ekuitas yang saya beli kemarin sebelum rilis FOMC dalam beberapa menit. Lihatlah grafik ini di EURUSD atau grafik lainnya dan tidak bisa memberi tahu Anda apapun dengan pasti. UANG ARUS TERTENTU. MANAJEMEN RISIKO TERTENTU. FAKTA-FAKTA TERTENTU BAHKAN JIKA BERITA DUNIA karena perubahan PERSEPSI YANG MEMINDUNGI PASAR sampai REALITAS masuk. Seperti tidak ada Rencana Pajak BARU sampai Agustus 2017 jika PERNAH. Semoga hari mu menyenangkan. Mnuchin menekan tombol reset dan kemudian pengumpul aset menghabiskan hari seperti ini. Dow menduduki puncak 20.800 mengangkat bahu dari setiap ketakutan dari Mnuchin. Berkat sebuah slam VIX. Zerohedgesitesdefau 23EOD160.jpg Membuat catatan ke-10 ditutup berturut-turut - sesuatu yang baru saja terjadi satu kali dalam sejarah The Dow selama 100 tahun. 1987 KOMENTAR DARI BENJAMINIS: Itu sengaja dilakukan karena kita hanya memanipulasi pasar saat ini. Indeks Komposit Geometri Nilai Line telah resmi pecah. Zerohedgesitesdefau Dana Lyons menjelaskan The Value Line Geometric Composite (VLG), seperti yang telah kami jelaskan berkali-kali di halaman ini, adalah rata-rata tak tertandingi yang melacak kinerja saham rata-rata di antara alam semesta sekitar 1800 saham. Jadi, menurut kami, ini berfungsi sebagai representasi terbaik dari keadaan sebenarnya dari pasar ekuitas A. S. Selain itu, secara historis sangat penting untuk teknik analisis dan teknik charting, yang cukup luar biasa mengingat tidak ada kendaraan yang dapat diperdagangkan berdasarkannya. Dan, seperti dicatat, VLG sedang menguji tingkat monumental saat ini, akan kembali beberapa dekade. Saham konstruksi jatuh paling banyak sejak Juni pada rencana rencana infrastruktur Trump untuk meragukan zerohedgesitesdefau. NFRAFAIL0.jpg Komentar Mnuchins memicu pembelian refleksif pada obligasi dan saham namun segera bangkrut karena saham berjatuhan untuk mundur dengan imbal hasil obligasi. Zerohedgesitesdefau 23EOD100.jpg Tarif turun terutama pada komentar Mnuchins (dengan performa buruk yang panjang) - sekarang turun dalam hasil dalam seminggu. Zerohedgesitesdefau EOD1110.jpg EDFF Futures menunjukkan bahwa peluang kenaikan suku bunga bulan Maret merosot saat elang bergeser ke bulan Mei. Zerohedgesitesdefau Volume30.jpg Indeks USD jatuh pada komentar Mnuchin - penurunan terbesar sejak Januari. CATATAN - tidak ada bounce dalam USD setelah Trump membawa BAT lagi (dan mengundi saham ritel) zerohedgesitesdefau. Emas Tertinggi 1250 (hari terbaik untuk Emas sejak Desember) - menghapus sebagian besar kerugian Trump - dan Silver menembus di atas 200DMA-nya. Zerohedgesitesdefau 223EOD50.jpg Tembaga dibuang pada akhir obrolan mogok dan infrastruktur AS meragukan zerohedgesitesdefau. 223EOD60.jpg KOMENTAR DARI BENJAMINIS: Ini membawa kita up to date apa yang pasar lakukan hari ini dan sekarang kita beralih ke Asia. Tetap disini. DI SINI ADALAH SALAH SATU PILIHAN KREDIBLE TENTANG APA YANG BENAR-BENAR AKAN ON. Artikel ini ditulis oleh Brandon Smith dan aslinya diterbitkan di Alt-Market. Editor Komentar: Apa yang naik harus turun. Tindakan ini telah direncanakan untuk beberapa saat. Jelas bahwa Federal Reserve mendorong gelembung likuiditas QE ke tingkat ekstrem ekstrem selama tahun-tahun Obama, mengetahui selama ini bahwa hal itu akan menaikkan suku bunga begitu perjalanannya selesai. Sekarang setelah ini mulai terjadi, pada saat pemilihan the Feds, itu dibuang ke Administrasi Trump. Dan Presiden Trump telah membentuk narasi untuk perjuangannya melawan kebijakan bank sejak saat kampanyenya. Siapa yang benar-benar menarik senar dalam pertempuran semacam itu Akankah ada reformasi yang berarti (Undang-undang Dodd Frank adalah ukuran setengah terbaik) Akankah gelembung yang muncul menabrak ekonomi dan membiarkan orang Amerika terdampar Hanya waktu yang akan mengatakannya. Dalam Pertempuran Antara Trump Dan Federal Reserve, Yang Benar-benar Menang oleh Brandon Smith Sebagai bagian dari semakin jelasnya set-up gerakan konservatif oleh kepentingan perbankan internasional dan think tank globalis, saya telah melihat sebuah kampanye disinformasi yang berkembang yang tampaknya Yang dirancang untuk mencuci Federal Reserve dari kejahatan untuk kecelakaan tahun 2008 yang terus memburuk sampai hari ini meskipun banyak klaim pemulihan ekonomi. Saya yakin program ini dimaksudkan untuk membuat panggung bagi konflik yang akan datang antara Administrasi Trump dan The Fed, tapi apa akibat utama dari kejadian semacam itu. Dalam artikel saya, The False Economic Recovery Narrative Will Die Pada tahun 2017. Saya menggariskan propaganda tersebut. Perangkap yang didirikan oleh media yang dimiliki dan dioperasikan oleh media global seperti Bloomberg, di mana mereka secara konsisten mengklaim bahwa Donald Trump telah mewarisi sebuah ekonomi dalam pemulihan dan penguasaan dari pemerintahan Obama. Saya benar-benar membongkar posisi dan bukti mereka dengan menunjukkan bagaimana masing-masing indikator fundamental mereka benar-benar mengalami penurunan yang stabil sejak 2008, bahkan dalam menghadapi intervensi moneter besar-besaran dan pencetakan fiat oleh the Fed. Keprihatinan terbesar saya menjelang pemilihan 2016 adalah bahwa Trump akan diizinkan untuk menang karena dia merupakan kambing hitam yang sempurna untuk sebuah krisis ekonomi yang telah dilakukan oleh bank sentral selama bertahun-tahun. Apakah Trump mengetahui rencana ini belum dapat dibuktikan, tapi seperti yang telah saya sebutkan di masa lalu, kabinet alumni Goldman Sachs dan veteran neo-connya tidak memberi saya kepercayaan diri. Dalam skenario terbaik, Trump dikelilingi oleh musuh dalam skenario terburuk, dia dikelilingi oleh teman-teman. Mengalahkan loyalitas, meskipun, adalah masalah sekunder untuk saat ini. Fokus utama artikel ini adalah untuk mengetahui apakah suatu pertempuran antara Trump dan the Fed akan menghasilkan positif bersih atau negatif bersih untuk publik. Posisi saya adalah bahwa setiap tindakan melawan the Fed seharusnya terjadi bertahun-tahun yang lalu, dan bahwa hari ini, the Fed tidak lebih dari sebuah kurban pengorbanan agenda globalis yang lebih besar. Artinya, kelompok konservatif harus sadar bahwa kemenangan atas the Fed sebenarnya bukan sebuah kemenangan atas globalis. Sebenarnya, globalis mungkin sangat baik INGIN perang antara the Fed dan Gedung Putih saat ini. Pertama, beberapa fakta perlu dibuat untuk melawan klaim propaganda bahwa Fed adalah semacam korban yang tidak bersalah dari Presiden Trump yang mengamuk atau retorika konservatif yang salah arah. Penyiapan Kambing Hitam Terus Berlanjut Perpanjangan propaganda Fed terdahulu telah dimulai, tentu saja, oleh media arus utama dan kaum liberal pada umumnya, Anda tahu, orang-orang yang sama yang memuji upaya pendudukan Occupy Wall Street (dalam beberapa kasus salah arah). Dengan mengalahkan negasi dari Undang-Undang Dodd-Frank, media telah mencari kesempatan untuk menyatakan bahwa Trump bertindak untuk memperkaya teman perusahaannya atau bahwa dia adalah anak laki-laki idiot dalam hal urusan bisnis dan ekonomi. Hal ini menyebabkan beberapa sniping oleh Elizabeth Warren dan Ketua Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellens pada kongres pekan lalu. Argumen Trump salah atau berbohong saat dia mengatakan bahwa Dodd-Frank membekukan pinjaman dari bank-bank besar. Anda dapat melihat kegembiraan di media di atas artikel baru-baru ini oleh Vanity Fair, yang tampaknya lebih fokus pada snum pergelangan kaki yang menggigit Trump daripada bukti konkret, adalah contoh sempurna. Sekarang, di pertahanan Trumps (atau paling tidak, untuk mempertahankan posisinya), Yellen sebenarnya adalah orang yang berbohong, di sini. Meskipun benar bahwa pinjaman komersial telah berkembang, dia mengklaim bahwa pinjaman usaha kecil telah membaik hanya salah. Bahkan Bloomberg dengan enggan mengakui bahwa pinjaman usaha kecil telah jatuh setidaknya 6 sejak berlalunya Dodd-Frank. Di rumah basis favorit kaum liberal di Brooklyn, Chicago, pinjaman untuk usaha kecil di sektor lingkungan turun 49 antara tahun 2008 dan 2014. Pada tahun 2015, Yellen sendiri berpendapat bahwa pinjaman usaha kecil menurun karena pemilik usaha kecil tidak mau pinjaman lagi. Ini agak mirip Biro Statistik Tenaga Kerja yang berpendapat bahwa lebih dari 95 juta usia kerja yang menganggur, orang Amerika seharusnya tidak dihitung sebagai pengangguran dalam statistik mereka karena mereka benar-benar tidak menginginkan pekerjaan. Ini adalah usaha untuk mengotori perairan pada masalah yang lebih besar, yaitu bahwa ekonomi A. S. berada dalam bahaya yang cukup besar. Anda tahu, menurut saya Trump tidak memperdebatkan bahwa perusahaan besar dan bank tidak menerima banyak pinjaman, saya pikir dia terutama menunjukkan perbedaan dalam pinjaman usaha kecil dan pinjaman pribadi. Yellen dan media mainstream mencoba menggunakan satu titik data pinjaman komersial, untuk mengabaikan keseluruhan perdebatan mengenai stagnasi pinjaman. The Fed Apakah Culpable Untuk Ekonomi Bubble Kami Dan Mencoba Untuk Shift Blame Sebelum A Collapse Faktanya adalah, kita semua TAHU bahwa perusahaan besar dan bank telah dibanjiri dengan banyak pinjaman, dan sebagian besar modal ini disulap dari udara tipis oleh Fed itu sendiri Melalui penciptaan fiat dan mendekati suku bunga nol. Kami tahu ini karena 16 triliun pinjaman diberikan kepada perusahaan di seluruh dunia yang terpapar oleh audit TARP (namun terbatas). Kami juga mengetahui hal ini karena sebagian besar pinjaman ini telah digunakan untuk mengembang gelembung pasar saham selama beberapa tahun terakhir melalui pembelian kembali saham tanpa akhir yang sebagian besar perusahaan tidak akan pernah mampu membeli yang lain. Kita juga tahu bahwa dunia investasi arus utama sadar akan pentingnya pinjaman ini karena mereka mulai panik saat Fed mengumumkan program kenaikan suku bunga yang sedang berjalan. Di luar itu, kita tahu bahwa pinjaman dan budaya bunga pinjaman Feds yang rendah antara perusahaan dan bank telah berperan penting dalam menjaga agar saham tetap terhipnotis, karena pejabat Fed telah TERBUKA ADMINISTRASI bahwa ini adalah masalahnya. Seperti yang dikatakan Richard Fisher dari the Fed Dallas dalam sebuah wawancara dengan CNBC: Apa yang Fed lakukan dan saya bagian dari kelompok itu adalah kita mengungguli reli pasar yang luar biasa, dimulai pada tahun 2009. Jenisnya yang saya sebut sebagai faktor Whimpy terbalik Saya dua hamburger hari ini untuk satu besok. Saya tidak terkejut bahwa hampir setiap indeks yang bisa Anda lihat turun secara signifikan. Mengacu pada hasil di pasar saham setelah Fed menaikkan suku bunga pada bulan Desember 2015. Saya memperingatkan rekan-rekan saya, Dont go goyah jika kita memiliki koreksi 10-20 persen di beberapa titik. Semua orang yang Anda ajak bicara telah memperingatkan bahwa pasar ini sangat mahal harganya. Jadi, sekali lagi, masalahnya bukan apakah meminjamkan bank atau tidak, kami tahu mereka meminjamkan, mereka hanya memberi pinjaman kepada orang-orang yang paling membutuhkannya. Saya pikir Fisher tidak jujur ​​dalam evaluasi besarnya konsekuensi dari gelembung Fed dan bahwa penurunan 10 sampai 20 dalam ekuitas adalah perkiraan yang tidak masuk akal. Tapi menyisihkan kebohongan putih kecil, setidaknya pengetahuan yang tersedia secara luas bahwa Federal Reserve memprakarsai pinjaman korporasi gratis-untuk-semua, mengetahui bahwa manfaat yang seharusnya terbatas dalam cakupan dan juga lamanya. They know that a crash is coming, and they have been stalling until they can find the right scapegoat to divert blame. That scapegoat is Trump, and by association, all conservatives. As far as Dodd-Frank is concerned, the act was supposed to be a primer for stopping destructive behavior in the financial sector, more specifically in derivatives. Yet, in spite of Dodd-Frank, banks like Citigroup are STILL bloated with derivatives after receiving at least 476 billion in taxpayer funds to stop them from going bankrupt for the very same irresponsibility. Dodd-Frank accomplished absolutely nothing in terms of what it was mandated to do. I believe the only true purpose of Dodd-Frank was to distract everyone from Ron Pauls Fed audit bill, which was gaining major traction at the time. Liberals And The Fed Become Bedfellows So, why does Trumps undercutting of Dodd-Frank even matter As outlined above, it is a propaganda point for the establishment to perpetuate the narrative that Trump is incompetent, that the people who support him are incompetent, and that when the economy does shift into greater crisis it will be his fault and the fault of conservatives. It is also a springboard for the Federal Reserve to attack Trump, as shown in Yellens congressional testimony. I also find it interesting that through the Dodd-Frank issue as well as others, leftists are being galvanized in support around the Federal Reserve, something that they probably would not have done a couple of years ago. This is all culminating in what I believe will become a titanic battle not only between Trump and Leftists, but also between Donald Trump and the Fed. But why would the establishment want to incite a conflict between the president and the central bank This is something conservatives and liberty activists have wanted for decades a president that would be willing to take on the Federal Reserve and expose its innards. The problem is, the time for the effectiveness of such an action is long gone. Auditing the Fed under Obama (an openly pro-globalist president) would have been a disaster for the powers that be. It would have thrown their entire agenda into disarray and killed any chance that they could complete what they call the great global economic reset. Auditing or shutting down the Fed under Trump is another matter. As I examined in detail with evidence in my article The Economic End Game Explained. the Federal Reserve has a shelf life. It has already served its purpose, which was to undermine the American economy and our currency system. The Fed will now begin deflating the bubbles it has engineered in stocks, Treasuries and the dollar through continued interest rate hikes and rolling out the over 4 trillion (official amount) on its balance sheet. The goal Sinking America and reducing it to third world status over the course of the next several years to make way for total global centralization of economic administration, eventually leading to global fiscal management under the IMF and perhaps the BIS, and a global currency system all while making conservative movements look like the monster behind the crisis. COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: The incredible information shared here is real of that there is NO DOUBT. So the question might be why do I need to know this to trade Forex. There are two answers and the first is you should know this in order to protect yourself and your family and be aware of what will happen to our world. The second answer you only need to be aware of what is going on since if you really do and the way that it is explained is not that difficult to learn. I am teaching myself and preparing myself so while I share then I learn. I have already opened up my new Forex 50,000 US Funds Demo Account with FXCM UK and I put on one trade this morning at 10:31 AM as I went SHORT SPX500. 100 units. My STOP LOSS IS SET AT 1005 US Dollars and my LIMIT OUT IS SET AT 1250 US Dollars. The cost of Margin is 1250 so my RISK REWARD RATIO is 1250 VS 1005. At the moment I have a DRAW DOWN of 400 US Dollars and Equity of 49,600 US Dollars as the Roll Overs are being calculated. Over the weekend I will finally follow KeepCalmfx instructions to do my SCREENSHOT. To summarize, the U. S. economy and the dollar are slated for a controlled demolition. The Fed will do everything in its power to prod Trump and conservatives into war with the central bank, because the Fed is now ready to sacrifice itself and the dollars world reserve status in order to clear a path for a new global system and ideology. The Federal Reserve is a suicide bomber. If this takes place as I predict then the international banks and the establishment elites will be able to lay the blame for the death of king dollar squarely at the feet of Trump and conservatives, and at least a third of the country (leftists) will buy into the narrative lock, stock and barrel because they desperately WANT to believe it. Remember, the tale being scripted here is that Trump is a rampaging maniac that does not know what he is doing. To be clear, I am not supporting the continuing dominance of the Fed, or the existence of the fiat dollar. What I am saying is that conservatives may just get what we have been wishing for all these years but not in the manner we had hoped. To counter this threat our list of targets must expand to meet reality. The delusion that the core problem is the Federal Reserve must stop. The Fed is a box store, a franchise in a chain of franchises, nothing more. If we do not also turn our scrutiny and aggression towards root globalist institutions like the IMF and the BIS as well as international banks, then our efforts will only serve to bolster the enemy we are trying to fight. In a battle limited to Trump versus the Fed, only the bankers will win. This article was written by Brandon Smith and originally published at Alt-Market . Click here to subscribe : Join over one million monthly readers and receive breaking news, strategies, ideas and commentary. COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: After I closed the post I read the commentary of the following person and since it was so clear and well written then I share it here for everyone to read. Zeus says: Comment ID: 3668351 February 23, 2017 at 10:30 am RE: Trump and the Fed. Right now the Fed Reserve (((Private Family Corp))) has enjoyed a 100 Year Monopoly on the US currency. Until we break up that Monopoly we will be a slave to their Debt system. JF Kennedy tried to unlock that Monopoly with EO-11110 by issuing a competing US Dollars backed with Silver. That is what we need to go back to, Money backed by real tangible assets. Running with a Fiat currency backed by nothing but thin air of the US Tax payers is not a solid plan. If you also let them run the printing presses, creating unlimited IOU8217s, it is set up for massive abuse. And that8217s what we have today. Get your Gold and Silver in place to preserve your wealth or suffer when this house of Ponzi Fraud collapses. And that is coming very shortly. You have been warned here for several years now, Get your PM8217s in place. Commercial Member Joined Dec 2014 1,757 Posts Online Now Posted February 23rd, 2017 at 1:09 PM (CST) by Jim Sinclair amp filed under General Editorial . Interest rates are blowing out and the question is who goes first January was the worst month for European government bonds in history with all the bonds blowing out. TCW, the US asset manager that runs worlds largest actively managed bond fund, has eliminated its exposure to Eurozone bank debt over fears these lenders are excessively risky. Soon the interest rates will reach crucial levels led by the US. What I mean by that is that the US Treasury 10y rates will reverse the 35-year trend and exceed the 3 level which will cause huge bond losses. The way the US interest rates go the rest of the world goes especially in the intertwined world we are living today. 10-year U. S. Treasuries are resting at 2.45 because the ECB and BOJ are buying 150 billion a month of their own bonds and much of that money then flows from 10 basis points JGBs and 45 basis point Bunds into 2.45 U. S. Treasuries. A 12 trillion global central bank balance sheet looks permanent and is growing at over 1 trillion a year, thanks to the ECB and the BOJ. Without that financial methadone, both bond and stock markets worldwide would sink and produce a tantrum of significant proportions. Gross believes that without QE from the ECB and BOJ that 10-year U. S. Treasuries would rather quickly rise to 3.5 and the U. S. economy would sink into recession. And with scarcity of supply of long-term government bonds the illiquidity is severely constraining the efficiency of the bond-buying program of the central banks in keeping interest rates down. We see situations of upward pressure on interest rates in Europe with Italian interest rates rising from 1 in the beginning of September to 2.35 (135) on January 30, 2017. In Germany the pace of inflation more than doubled in December, driven by a surge in oil (low base effect). Consumer prices rose 1.7 from a year ago, recording the biggest jump on record according to the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden. German interest rates rose from a negative 0.20 at the end of September to a positive 0.50 on January 30. And then we of course have the Japanese situation. Japans 10-year yield surged as traders judged the central banks recent expanded bond purchases of 450 billion yen (4 billion) to be insufficient to cap borrowing costs as global rates continued rising and steepening around the globe. As a result the 10Y yield on the JGBs rose as much as 4 bps to 0.14 on February 2, 2017, the highest since January of 2016, the market was clearly hoping for even more. Furthermore there may be a scarcity in long-dated supply, arguably the stuff of Kurodas nightmares. We see the same situation of scarcity of supply everywhere and thus the failing of the central banks policies. Italy worlds third largest bond market (2.2trn) could cause the dominos to fall Italy is the third or fourth largest bond market in the world amounting to 2.2trn with bank NPLs (Non-Performing Loans) of 360bn and youth unemployment of 40. Do you think that Italy raising 20bn and rescuing Monte Paschi with 8.8bn solves the Italian banking crisis Think again what do you think what interest rates rising from 0.99 September 1, 2016 to 2.35 on January 30, 2017 are telling us. If it is risk or inflation doesnt really matter rates have more than doubled since September and I think we will see 4 in Italy before the end of 2017 worsening the Italian debt situation further. Next to that without any stable Government, from 1945 to 1994 (49 years) Italy had 61 Governments, how much accountability do you think there really is and time to seriously tackle structural problems. On January 25, 2017 Italys Constitutional Court approved a new voting system based on proportional representation that raises the chance of an early election this summer whilst for the time being an interim cabinet has been appointed. On top of the Italian conundrum we have the elections in The Netherlands, March 13, France, April 23 and Germany, September 2017 that are clearly signifying a pull to the right, with people fed up with politicians and an islamitization of Europe, representing multiple potential exits from the EU which each can cause the break up of the EU with all its consequences. The tools in the toolbox are getting exhausted and there is no plan B It should be clear by now that it looks like all the tools in the toolbox are getting exhausted and it feels like all these events are converging with the weakest chain (3 US Treasury rates, Chinas Yuan, Italys banksbond market) snapping first subsequently followed by the lesser weak chains. This world is more interconnected than it has ever been (all banks hold billions of national and foreign government paper and international trade) in history and therefore the danger of a global ripple effect is more serious than ever. France for example holds in excess of 250bn of Italian bonds. And Germany stands out as the biggest creditor with net claims of 754.1bn. They can kiss goodbye to that money Less than 4 years ago, and shortly after his infamous whatever it takes threat to speculators, Mario Draghi responded to a question, saying, there is no Plan B when it comes to contingency plans for a Eurozone nation leaving the monetary union. So much for that, he is basically saying bad luck if it doesnt work. Draghi was also quoted saying that member states can exit the EU but first have to repay their debt. Though when like Italy you have 2.2trn in Government debt and a DebtGDP ratio of 132, youth unemployment of 40 and NPL 360bn explain to me how you are going to repay debt being Italy or any country for that sake And when Italy reinstates the Lire how is this currency inheriting a huge debt load going to be well positioned to repay the huge Euro debt Well in one quite simple answer it will not, it will further undermine the credibility of debt and the currencies. Conclusion ergo an exit of Italy out of the EU will cause huge debt defaults. And I dont believe investors will massively flee into the US dollar because an Italian exit will finally make investors aware that debt is debt and the situation isnt better in Japan, China or the US for that sake. THE PDF FILE OF THIS GREAT ARTICLE. PLEASE PRINT IT OUT AND READ IT AND SHARE IT. COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: I tried to copy and paste the 7 pages of the article and I am not able to, so I need to tell you that it MUST be read since the rest of the article lays out exactly how the World Financial system will collapse. Thursday, February 23, 2017 When Technical Analysis Works and When It Doesnt Above we see a chart of the ES futures going back to January 23rd (blue line) drawn from early this morning. A new data point is plotted every time we see 500 price changes in the contract. This means that the X axis is denominated in price movement (volatility) units, not in time units. When markets slow down (such as during overnight hours or at midday), we draw fewer quotbarsquot. When we see an upswing in movement, we draw a greater number of bars. Thus, when nothing is happening in the market, nothing is really happening in the chart. The lookback period going to January 23rd is one that I identified as a stable market regime. In statistical terms, the distribution of prices over that period was stationary. I run simple tests in Excel to compare volume and buyingselling distributions within that lookback period to identify when we have a stable regime. Within stable regimes, we can use simple technical indicators, such as overboughtoversold measures, to help us identify candidate buy and sell areas. The overboughtoversold measure in red looks at how price deviates from its 50-bar average in standard deviation units. As a rule, in a stable regime, I want to be a buyer of higher price lows (oversold areas where price remains higher than at the prior oversold levels) and a seller of lower price highs (overbought areas occurring at successively lower price highs). When the recent market is not stable (significant differences in participation and in the behavior of the participants), there is no a priori reason for believing that technical indicator readings drawn from the recent past will be relevant to the immediate future. What that means in practice is that using standard preset levels on standard technical measures to derive trading signals in all markets is a very inefficient process . Much of the time, well be inappropriately extrapolating the past into the future. When those strategies yield (predictably) random results, traders become frustrated and then look to trading psychology to cure their woes. Clueless coaches are apt to provide those traders with less than helpful advice to quotfollow your processquot and stay quotdisciplinedquot in trading. Slavish adherence to a random process will only yield consistently random results. Technical analysis is like card counting in blackjack. It works if there is a constant number of decks from which cards are drawn. If the number of decks in the shoe changes randomly, knowing the number of face cards played in the recent past will not provide information about the number likely to show up in the future. If there is a relatively constant set of participants in the marketplace and their buying and selling activity falls within stable parameters, we can make a reasonable inference as to the probability of forthcoming buying or selling. The smart trader is not looking for where to buy or sell. The smart trader is looking to see if the current market activity is stable relative to the activity of the recent past. The smart trader watches the dealer and figures out when card counting truly yields a betting edge. EURUSD: Bullish ST Targeting 1.08 USDJPY: Bearish ST Targeting 111 - BTMU 23 Feb 2017 12:55 EDT EURUSD BULLISH BIAS (1.0450-1.0800) Again, like above, there are no obvious risk events to focus on in the week ahead and hence our inclination is to give the current momentum greater influence in the bias for the week ahead. We dont really agree with selling the dollar on the back of the FOMC minutes but the softer dollar momentum might have legs given there is nothing to necessarily alter that for now certainly not from a global macro perspective. Of course, the obvious risk the other way is that French political risk escalates again and we see that drag the euro lower. Opinion polls will be key in that. The key piece of data is perhaps the flash estimate for CPI and core CPI on 28th February. The data from the euro-zone has clearly improved although the core annual CPI rate remains stuck at 0.9. Kejutan terbalik di sana akan memperkuat ekspektasi Q8 Q8 yang melemah pada akhir tahun ini dan akan membantu memberikan dukungan bagi euro. Still, upside momentum is unlikely to be strong given the scale of uncertainty lingering in Europe. USDJPY BEARISH BIAS (111.00-114.50) The calendar is relatively light for the week ahead and there are no clear-cut obvious events that could prompt market volatility in the week ahead. The FOMC minutes have been classed by the market as more on the dovish side and while we would question how long that conclusion will last, there is certainly scope for it to last over the relatively short period of a week when there are no major data releases or events to alter sentiment. Fed President Kaplan (voter), Bullard (non-voter), Williams (nonvoter) and Mester (non-voter) all speak over the period through to next Thursday but the key US data will probably be the PCE inflation data released on 1st March. The payrolls will not be released as usual on the first Friday due to the shorter February and hence will not be released until 10th March. Event risk appears more skewed toward risk aversion if political risks intensify in Europe again and hence yen strength is our bias for the week ahead, especially when coupled with the current momentum in the wake of the FOMC minutes. Copyright 2017 BTMU, eFXnews COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: All accurate and good information and opinion above however the one factor not included is the possibility that finally US 30 and SPX500 will sell off and possibly now because of the Treasury Secretary today stating that Tax Cuts might not come before the August recess. That did not play good and the US Dollar Index needs to hold above 99.00 so we shall see what Friday and Monday brings. Commercial Member Joined Dec 2014 1,757 Posts Online Now Sunday, June 15, 2014 Toward a Dynamic Approach to Technical Analysis 4.bp. blogspot-LcXeizJRXI. 00Dynamic. jpg In my recent post. I suggested that a dynamic technical analysis would not rely upon a fixed set of indicators and chart patterns to be interpreted in a uniform manner. Rather, fresh predictors would arise from a study of drivers impacting the most recent market regimes. Traders would follow the indicators that have demonstrated predictive accuracy not untested ones presumed to possess universal validity. Lets take an example from the current market. Using tests of stationarity, I have identified a stable period of market behavior embracing the recent past. That stability means that market price changes during that period can be assumed to proceed from a single process. If the time period under consideration possessed wildly different statistical properties, such as 2008 and 2014 for stocks, then there would be no assurance that price changes were resulting from a stable process. That would give us no reason to extrapolate patterns from one period to the other. A major problem with traditional use of technical indicators is that they are employed uniformly across non-stationary periods--especially intraday. It turns out that during the most recent stationary period (i. e. quotregimequot) a major driver of short-term price has been correlation. How SPX is correlated with other equity instruments has been significantly predictive of short-term forward price change. The catch is that single measures of correlation were not particularly informative in my research. Rather, aggregated correlations across a large number of stocks and sectors and over intraday horizons ended up being an excellent measure for short-term trading signals. In other words, the most valuable indicator of correlation was not a standard technical indicator, but rather a measure that required research. Moreover, I had to research it in such a way as to not overfit the data relationship. But there it is: when the correlation measure exceeds .40, the next days price change has averaged .35. When the correlation has been below .40, the next days price change has averaged -.37. As long as we stay in the current regime--a key assumption--I expect market strength when correlations are high and rising and weakness when they are low and falling. That becomes a potential trading quotsetupquot for the current regime . In a future regime, correlation may be much more modestly associated with forward price change--or it may be predictive over longer time frames. Setups become dynamic, because they adapt to changing markets. But correlation is but one factor that sets up in the current regime. There are others, from options ratios to intraday volatility. This is how many hours of preparation go into a single hour of trading. It takes time to create and test large correlation matrices. It also takes time to test the many other variables that are associated with the factors of sentiment and positioning that are key drivers in the current regime. Once the research is done, however, the trader knows the indicator levels that are significant and is able to automate alerts. That way, the trader can seamlessly incorporate multiple tested technical signals with his or her discretionary judgment about the market. The challenge is not that technical analysis doesnt work. The problem is that technical analysis works the way that parenting works: powerful when dynamically adapted to situations diluted when applied uncritically. . Posted by Brett Steenbarger, Ph. D. at 4:42 PM Comments from Benjaminis: The most striking part of this excellent article for me is what Brett says about CORRELATION. It turns out that during the most recent stationary period (i. e. quotregimequot) a major driver of short-term price has been correlation. How SPX is correlated with other equity instruments has been significantly predictive of short-term forward price change. That is exactly what we do. We use the MONEY FLOW causes by the movement in the Asset Classes confirmed by CORRELATION. All Feedback is welcome. My Forex trading day has ended and now time for some rest. From My Post 2050 and On Topic of my last few posts. Good Night. I have a very important statement to make and I start by posting the following two excellent charts that I just looked at on the EURUSD thread just now. I do not think that I have seen more detailed and excellent charts than these two. H4 Chart Update.. We are almost there. once cypher is complete I will look for bearish weakness. for now the only clue I have is the MACD divergence on 15m, 30m and H1 charts. and bulls started pushing inside these hours. lets see when bears will hit overall targets at 1.052030 area.. Here is the comments that went along with the charts. Waiting for 1.049xx to buy. Stopped buying at 1.0620 broken, maybe its time after news spike down. edit: or maybe not. I strongly state and share these thoughts. By fixating on the charts you fall into a trap that almost guarantees that you cannot ever become a professional currency trader. Of course some can and do make money having found a method within the charts that allows them to achieve some monetary success. However this is not what it is all about. Perhaps before the financial meltdown in 2008 trading could be done much more successfully however now in these times it is close to impossible to trade with any certainty and make substantial profits. I am in NO WAY making my comments personal towards anyone. This is not a contest of EGO as to whom is right or wrong. This is about making money with certainty. We know where each of the currency pairs that we trade will go. We have NO DOUBT. however we cannot call the timing as only the markets know the timing however as the MONEY starts to Flow at 9:30 AM Eastern Standard Time in the North America Equity Markets and the MONEY stops flowing in the Europe Equity Markets at 11:30 AM Eastern Standard Time the volume decreases of course. Trading without Money Management or Risk Management is a GUARANTEE of financial loss. Using a form of Money Management by trading small units also is a GUARANTEE of failure since in times like today if you trade against the TREND then you will lose your money. You must have an EDGE and what better EDGE than to know what happens when we have either RISK ON or RISK OFF. There is one person on the EURUSD thread that has 100 convinced himself that the news has no effect on the Elliot Wave Charts. Of course that makes no Common Sense however it also leads to failure. I wanted to share this with everyone since it is what it is and unless you understand all the issues and have the knowledge and DISCIPLINE than you will not become a successful and profitable Forex Currency Trader. Last night or early this morning I posted the following information and it completes my thoughts this morning of the proper way to learn how to trade properly and learn properly and so with that in mind here it is to read again. TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 14, 2017 How Trading Success Happens 4.bp. blogspot-H31LxbwWL. omeAcquire. jpg When I first began working with traders, my central insight was that trading is a performance activity. What makes for trading success is not so different from what makes for success in other performance fields, whether they be performing arts, athletics, chess, or surgery. In each of these fields, the star performer begins with certain inborn talents and then refines those through a process of training, mentoring, and coaching. Training and mentoring build knowledge and skills and accelerate the learning process. Coaching provides guidance and helps performers channel their talents and skills to where they can be most successfully applied. Long before elite performers acquire fame or fortune, they spend long hours in becoming. Their focus is on improvement, the refinement of skills, and the development of new ones--not on the the trappings of success. There are few, far too few, places where developing traders can benefit from the thoughtful integration of training, mentoring, and coaching. Its one reason Ive been such a fan of the building of teams within trading firms. Those teams enable senior traders to benefit from the work of junior traders, and they provide hands-on learning, mentoring, and coaching for those juniors. The learning takes place on the desk, just as an athletes learning takes place on the field--in practice and during games. No one expects an athlete to develop by reading books, taking classes, or practicing on their own. No one develops as a performing artist by writing in journals and trying out different songs or plays. In performance fields, aspiring performers learn from experienced performers and those knowledgeable about the performance domain. Medical students are trained at the bedside by practicing physicians chess players hone their talents in academies run by chess masters and grandmasters. If I were looking to become successful in the trading world, I would learn some skills andor develop some area of expertise that would make me valuable to a trading team or firm. I would then contribute my skills to that team and learn everything theyre doing that makes them successful. Over time, I would integrate my abilities and experience with what Ive learned to develop my own path to success--and then I would cement that learningdevelopment by serving as a mentor for a new generation of juniors who could in turn make me better. Ive worked with many individuals, many trading teams, and many trading firms. That is how success happens. Take care and be well and enjoy your life. Morning Thoughts - Daily economicprismwp-content. 202Chart. jpg The rewards of being the President, these days, are few and far between. Just ask President Trump. The work hours are terrible, the pay is far less than that of a corporate CEO, and youre endlessly surrounded by shabby politicians. Whats more, the hand towels aboard Air Force One have the shoddy over washed roughness of those at a turnpike Motel 6. But thats not the worst of it. Any and all efforts to remake foreign policy to address the threats of the 21st century not the 20th century are undermined by the intelligence community with vehement efficiency. Before you can say Jack Robinson, the leaky conduit to the mainstream media boils up the latest brouhaha to simmering pot. Last week, for example, Trump had to fire his national security adviser for engaging in statesmanship with the Russians. Then, after that, John McCain a Class A ignoramus went and kvetched about Trumps efforts from Europe. Good grief With the exception of being a flatus odor judge. we cant think of a stinkier job than being the President of the United States. Can you Continue reading 8594 economicprismwp-content. ralReserve. jpg Everyones got a plan for sale these days. In fact, there are so many plans out there we cannot keep up with them all. Eat celery sticks and lose weight. Think and grow rich. Stocks for the long run. Naturally, plans like these run a dime a dozen. Good plans, however, are scarcer than hens teeth. You cant possibly see them no matter how closely you look. They simply dont exist. This was the case on Capitol Hill this week, where money and politics collided at the biannual monetary policy gala. Despite all the hubbub, no good plans were offered. Whats more, on first glance, no bad plans were offered too. When Fed Chair Janet Yellens testimony was finally over, Congress knew less about the Feds plans than when it started. For instance, when asked if the Federal Reserve would raise rates next month, Fed Chair Janet Yellen replied. I cant tell you exactly which meeting it would be. I would say every meeting is live. What does this mean, really Continue reading 8594 economicprismwp-content. apaneseYen. jpg What will President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe talk about when they meet later today Will they gab about what fishing holes the big belly bass are biting at Will they share insider secrets on what watering holes are serving up the stiffest drinks Indeed, these topics are unlikely. Rather, what theyll be discussing is cooperative trade, growth, and employment policies between their respective national economies. Theyll also talk about currency debasement opportunities. Soon enough, perhaps by the time you read this, youll be able to peruse the headlines and garner soundbites of their discussions. Maybe a new partnership will be announced. Anythings possible. Regardless, what follows is a brief review a thirty year retread thats intended to put the meeting within its proper context. This is the backstory you wont hear anywhere else To begin, it was precisely the wrong thing to do at precisely the wrong time. Continue reading 8594 economicprismwp-content. 611Trump. jpg There was, indeed, a time when clear thinking and lucid communication via the written word were held in high regard. As far as we can tell, this wonderful epoch concluded in 1936. Everything since has been tortured with varying degrees of gobbledygook. The fall from grace was triggered by the 1936 publication of John Maynard Keynes The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. The book is rigorously indecipherable. Whats more, it has the ill-effect of making those who read it dumber. Nonetheless, politicians and establishment economists remain enamored with Keynes gibberish. For it offers academic rationale for governments to do what they love to do most borrow money and spend it on inane programs. In particular, Keynes advocated filling bottles with money and burying them in coalmines for people to dig up as a way to end unemployment. Somehow, this public works egg hunt would make everyone rich. COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: The information above is for reading if you have any interest to learn and understand however this morning we have reached a TURNING POINT. You will understand after reading the article that CAPTURED my Morning Thoughts. To Start we have RISK ON this morning and I will explain why at the end of this article. economicprismwp-content. 202Chart. jpg The rewards of being the President, these days, are few and far between. Just ask President Trump. The work hours are terrible, the pay is far less than that of a corporate CEO, and youre endlessly surrounded by shabby politicians. Whats more, the hand towels aboard Air Force One have the shoddy over washed roughness of those at a turnpike Motel 6. But thats not the worst of it. Any and all efforts to remake foreign policy to address the threats of the 21st century not the 20th century are undermined by the intelligence community with vehement efficiency. Before you can say Jack Robinson, the leaky conduit to the mainstream media boils up the latest brouhaha to simmering pot. Last week, for example, Trump had to fire his national security adviser for engaging in statesmanship with the Russians. Then, after that, John McCain a Class A ignoramus went and kvetched about Trumps efforts from Europe. Good grief With the exception of being a flatus odor judge. we cant think of a stinkier job than being the President of the United States. Can you Theres little privacy. Newspapers across the planet psychoanalyze your every facial expression many conclude youre mentally ill. You can hardly wander the halls of your own home in your bathrobe during night hours no less without it making front page news. Wild and Wacky Markets Yet, despite all this, has there ever been a President before President Trump who made the job look so doggone fun In all seriousness, what could be more fun than getting paid to look CNNs Jim Acosta in the eyes and tell him that CNN will no longer be referred to as fake news but rather, as very fake news As far as we can tell, Trumps having a rip-roaring good time. Indeed, publicly roasting the mainstream media calling them the enemy of the American people must be one of the few redeeming perks of the job. But, on balance, the advantages of being leader of the free world come up short when compared to nearly all other gigs. COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: I have explained many times about PERCEPTION (MARKETS) Markets are always RIGHT until they are NOT (REALITY) The words below now is the REALITY. Where markets are concerned, in these early days of the President Trump era, wild and wacky occurrences have become the norm. The DOW, SampP 500, and NASDAQ all set new highs practically every day. In fact, this week the DOW marked its 10th record close in a row. PERCEPTION NOT REALITY. You have to go back over 30 years to find the last time the DOW pulled off such an achievement. Its breathtaking. But thats not the half of it. The DOWs jumped and jived in ways that have broken the bounds of what market technicians thought were possible. PERCEPTION NOT REALITY. On Wednesday, if you werent aware, the Dow closed 2,000 points above its 200-day moving average. For perspective, the last time this happenedwas never. In other words, in the Dows 120-year history this has never, ever happened. What to make of it COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: We can now see exactly what I have been teaching in REAL TIME. So much for charts. 2000 POINTS above its 200-day moving average (NEVER) The Dow Speaks: In Trump We Trust Every suspicion inside of us, from our brain to our gut to our big toe, says stocks shouldve crashed long ago. They are overvalued to the extreme by all valuation measurements. The SampP 500s Shiller price-to-earnings ratio was 29.29 at yesterdays close of market. Thats well above its 16.72 long term average. Likewise, the Buffett indicator market capitalization to gross national product ended the day at 130.7 percent. This is considered significantly overvalued. PERCEPTION NOT REALITY. Certainly a crash is eventual, but is it imminent Never in our lives can we recall of a market that over appreciated the abilities of one man to the extent of todays market. The words spoken by the Dow are, In Trump We Trust PERCEPTION NOT REALITY. Expectations of forthcoming tax cuts, deregulations, and prospects for faster economic growth, including corporate earnings growth, have been priced into the market as if its a done deal. Who knows Maybe it is a done deal. President Trump has achieved the impossible before. Who are we to say he wont do it again But, on the other hand, what if Trumps unable to his push tax cuts through Congress Or what if his efforts to bring jobs back to America start a trade war What tune will the Dow be singing then We can already envision the teeth gnashing panic that will erupt on Wall Street when investors realize, en masse, that theyve pushed the market well out over the ledge. Our advice, make an Irish exit from the party now while you still can. COMMENTS FROM BENJAMINIS: What was the EVENT Yesterday that turned things from RISK ON to RISK OFF When the new Treasury Secretary spoke publically and suggested that TAX CUTS might happen by the August 2017 Recess of Congress that was the BEGINNING OF THE END. Now we have confusion by the Republicans over OBAMACARE. During March 2017 we have the MAJOR PROBLEM of the Debt Ceiling and so now we get to a new stage. Please post your questions and your comments since this is a very important post as now it is easy to understand what I have been teaching about PERCEPTION (MARKETS) and REALITY (FUNDAMENTALS) Now you can understand why I post so much information about fundamentals from all points of view so WE can understand and know the REALITY and by seeing the BIGGER PICTURE we are better informed then in many cases some of the worlds best economists that live in a Glass Bubble. Here is part of my post from yesterday from Zerohedge, that confirms the point about MARKET MANIPULATION and FREE MARKETS. Feb 23, 2017 4:03 PM Mnuchin hit the reset button and then asset gatherers spent the day like this. The Dow topped 20,800 shrugging off any fears from Mnuchin. thanks to a VIX slam. zerohedgesitesdefau. 23EOD160.jpg Have A GREAT WEEKEND and please put on your seat belts because we are entering a VERY ROCKY ROAD AHEAD. Trader: quotThe Next Market Phase May Be Dominated By Genuine Disappointmentquot zerohedgesitesdefau. picture-5.jpg by Tyler Durden Feb 24, 2017 6:04 AM By Mark Cudmore, a former FX trader who writes for Bloomberg Mnuchins Dose of Reality Yet to Bite Steven Mnuchins dose of reality for investors in relation to the fiscal stimulus has triggered a disinflationary theme to markets that will impact many assets classes. Yesterday, I wrote that Trumps speech to congress on Tuesday may mark a capitulation point for reflation trades. It appears that Mnuchin has tried to pre-empt him. Amid comments on a wide array of financially relevant topics, markets should really be focusing on his admission that the stimulus wont help the economy much this year and the confirmation that passage of tax reform is unlikely to be imminent. He reiterated that the administration is committed to an overhaul of the tax system by August. Thats still farther away than many investors had hoped for, and even that highly aggressive timeline is unachievable according to Beacon Policy Advisors. The start of 2017 has seen steam come out of some of the Trump reflation trades - long dollar and short Treasuries in particular. But once investors accept that the new administration wont be able to work as many economic miracles as once hoped, therell be much more repricing required to get back to where we were before the election. The yield level of 2.3 is the key pivot in 10-year Treasuries. The dollar trade has already been broken, but theres more downside to come. Perhaps more interesting now is the assets that have seen little pullback yet. I highlighted the topping price-action of commodities at the start of last week. The anticipated U. S. infrastructure plan was always going to be marginal in terms of real demand for industrial metals, but the sentiment boost was fundamental to price gains in the past three months. That support has just been removed. U. S. equities make records weekly but the next stage is surely going to be de-risking and deleveraging, meaning a correction is likely. When it comes to financial markets trading the promises of the then-incoming U. S. administration, the end of 2016 was dominated by unrealistic hopes . This year started with glimmers of reality replacing those dreams. The next phase may be dominated by genuine disappointment upon realizing the future is at the pessimistic extreme of the potential spectrum. REALITY LADIES AND GENTLEMAN - REALITY - I will return later today and at the moment my position of SHORT SPX500 that I put on at 10:31 AM is in a DRAW UP at 600 US less my rollover costs of 63.00. I also put on one position of SHORT US 30 at 6:36 AM and have a DRAW UP of 25.00. My STOP IS ON AT 1005 US DOLLARS and I set my LIMIT OUT at Double my Margin on this contract that is 1100 US Dollars. My LIMIT OUT is 2200 US Dollars. 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